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Mad Money

News/Business. (2012) New.

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480

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Cramer 6, Us 6, Europe 4, New York 4, Starbucks 4, India 2, Michigan 2, Beth 2, China 2, Toyota 2, Jim Cramer 2, Starbu Starbuck 2, Ulta Salons 1, Asia 1, Mlp 1, Chevron Nigeria 1, Ameritrade 1, Subaru 1, Nike 1, United States 1,
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  CNBC    Mad Money    News/Business.  (2012) New.  

    December 4, 2012
    6:00 - 7:00pm EST  

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tim. >> ymdx. >> price action hewlett-packard has been good. >> buying ausi dollar, selling the yen. >> looking for long consumer names, market cap nike. >> see you tomorrow. back here again at 5:00. "mad money" with jim cramer starts right now. ::. i'm jim cramer. welcome to my world. >> you need to get in the game! >> he's nuts! they're nuts! they know nothing! >> there's a bull market somewhere. >> "mad money." you can't afford to miss it. hey, i'm cramer. welcome to "mad money." welcome to cramerica. i'm not here to make friends. my job is not just to teach and entertain, but to educate. so call me. all right let's be honest. if you are like me, and you are
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thinking this whole kit and caboodle, it is getting real on the market. it is very hard to pry off. hence today's action again. the dow is down. nasdaq giving up and paint drying. and we are go to hear from a banker later on in the show. we heard about a weakening consumer today from the owner of darden. which happens to be part of the "mad money" staff. finished down 8.9%. it yields 42%. but, that yield might not be the
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protection it used to be. that more than doubles the tax on dividends. we saw one of the biggest retail jugger nauts, the gap. sales have become sloppy to surrender $3.57 or 10%. although that doesn't spell the death of retailers, we go off the charts tonight. and we witnessed downward pressure in the oil sector. today is the first day when the group got any lift at all. so what do we do? is it game over for equities
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should i go home? no, no, no. let me first say absolutely not. we have to get either to a cliff resolution, or so the situation where no one expects the resolution. going with the latter, hey, that is new. let me walk you through here. today last week. if you recall, we heard from a host of executives. they felt like compromise was in the air. it was real and eminent. we heard from the ceo of goldman sachs. it could be hammered out without real difficulty if it were in the private sector. when i heard those execs touch base with them and spoke with
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them on both sides of the aisle i thought there would be more common ground. that the common ground somewhat a loser. and the refuse al to negotiate and to never raise taxes. ensures that inted of a deal, we are getting no deal that can't rise above. so what do we need to do? what has to happen? it is simple. the market must disabuse itself of the notion that they are going on vacation without the notion. the fiscal cliff glasgows from being half full to half empty and it is more immune to
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disappointment. they will be gone and checked out and sold. they will be replaced by strong holders. these people believe that some kind of deal is inevitable. they feel it won't have much of an impact on the economy. mellow drama even. and this is their group of strong holders. well, i should be better off going over the cliff. rich will pay more on their fair shares and higher taxes on dividends. and the bloated defense budget.
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unnecessary social programs. i think we aren't where we need to be when it comes to abandoning all hope. i think those people are polyannas. i think we go into a recession with lots of layoffs and the fiscal cliff was designed to pr compromise. everyone knew about the growth. fewer jobs, larger deficit. as i said last night, it doesn't matter, we can pick our stocks and buy them down. ulta salons, but i want to suggest to other groups that are going to give you bang for the buck, betting that the hope will
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be squeezed out and the bottom gets put in before a deal is made. why not? we know the auto market is for 11 years now and we have been sweet on ford domestically. what are some of the other key areas. asia already turned. i think europe could be stablized. ford is the one to watch. i'm out blessing it. in europe i'm thinking that i'm excited about ford. we have ample evidence today that i'm right. the rates remained too low. and pricing is moving up in california, nevada, arizona all things we learned from the
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luxury home builder toll today. that is fine. but what i hadn't heard is a demographic play, how the demographics are going to take over. household formation is unnatural and because of the great resection. well, from the delay of creation of new families, which is highly unusual, what makes that so special? the fiscal cliff could be a big deal. i'm going to put it in an amusing way, it is the need to get out of your mother in law's house. pretty intuitive concept when you think about it. we have a break here. because the market is so darn
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tough. and that could be your chance for the analysts. here is the bottom line. we need hope to be van switkwis. he so that it is so negative. have them leave the room. and we can return to the growth themes and they are autos and homes. by them on the way down and never on the way down as the scared sellers buy them out. you can take your time. who the heck knows when and from what level you can get back in. why don't we go to tom in new york. >> big lots and slower same store sales and make it a buy. it had it's gob and i don't want
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you to come in now. i think that big lots is not a great operator. the market needs to free itself from the notion that there will be a deal. that is what needs to happen. take your time. this hope is still not dashed enough to make this market immune from more disappointment. "mad money" will be right back. shop until you drop? the holiday shopping season is in full swing. the only thing more competitive is the cut throat clash from retailer against retailer. holiday edition of off the charts and later, some thing is brewing. starbucks is serving up returns
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alongside it's coffee for years. or is this your chance to fill up your cup before these shares get percolating? plus rise above. while washing to be trades offers cramer is keeping you one step ahead. tonight he is getting a read on the regionals. find out if you should be making a deposit coming up on "mad money."
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with the fiscal cliff
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looming less than a month away. you would think that some would be getting hammered right now. and i'm not just talking about defense. think retail. if we go over the cliff, something that i have been telling you as of this weekend. that will deal a huge blow to the purchases power of most americans think about it. tax rates go up. >> boo. >> the payroll tax holiday goes away. unemployment benefits expire for most people and that is not even accounting for the layoffs. put it together, unless we get a deal, which won't be bad news for the single biggest consumer out there, retail.
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>> you would expect the whole retail cohort to be in trouble. things will get a whole lot worse. two weeks ago we got retail sales that showed a 3% decline. last friday's gdp indicated that it had decelerated to 1.4%. incomes are flat and hurricane sandy shut down the northeast for days and in some cases for weeks. even though we have had positive numbers from companies like home dep depot, the group would be flat
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lining. yet that hasn't been happening. it is shown by the rth, the market vectovector's retail num. it has been showing very well. that is why tonight we are going off the charts with the help of ed ponzi. my colleague at realmoney.com, we have to learn what the charts are seeing. if you remember, one of the reasons why i went back to ed. he is the guy who nailed it and went against the grain in europe. right before the decision on the european bailout. and according to him, according to a guy who went against the grain then and was right. when you look at the market based on the markets, retail
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might be the most attractive area to own in this whole market. look, look at this daily chart of the rth. this is it. excellent proxy for the whole group. it does work. you can see from the year earlier in october. november 21st, this is the spot here, it has come roaring back. he points out two important things that happened. it completed almost 50% pull back. here, this is the 50%, pull back excuse that, okay and 50% retrar rephrasemer rephrasement like we got there. it is almost a security. it will of ten change course when you get down to 50.
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that is a key term like a seesaw. as we call it, the mac d at the bottom of the chart. moving average indicator. this is a momentum indicator that is used to show changes on a stock's trajectory before they happen. so it is useful to you and me. he said that the mac d indicator gave you a classic signal. these things put it back to the high for the year now. the rth had stayed above the 200 day moving average. it is the red. and this is how it stayed. it never took out the 200 day moving average. when i was in the game.
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i used the 200 day as my benchmark. a few days ago, we got what he called the bullish development. a shorter term measure of the trajectory. when that happens, chart followers tend to jump onboard. he knows that the rth is 1% below the all time closing high right now. if the index goes higher, it could be smooth sailing for a far as the eye can see. wish i were taller. he says he would when it and add to this position. let's go to the ets hourly chart. that is a chart where each tick is an hour of trading. i used to love to play with
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these. he wants the rth to break out of 46. this $45 level has acted here. it tends to become a floor of suppo support. we saw it pull back to $45 and it rebounded there from yesterday. today it fell to $44.94. believe it or not, to me i was worried.listen, it is in the sweet spot. the rth could be primed for another rb. he thinks this is a good sign.
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we look at the rth and he is encouraged that there is enormous adversity here. apparel retailer limited brands. that suggests that the retail sector should remain resilient. i was worried that we didn't close above 45. my view, though. i'm more concerned about the fundamentals here and i worry more that we could have situations like the gap today. wal-mart missed it's quarter. i'm more concerned about that. i got -- that is another channel i can. there are plenty of real worries
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out there. in this grim environment you can find sectors that are holding up better than you might think. the pull back in retail might be just the moment that you want to pull the trigger to this key sector index. wouldn't that be something? stay with cramer and we will be right back. >> coming up. something is brewing. but could concerns about it's moving to tea mean it is time to layoff the caffeine or is this your chance to fill up your cup before the shares get percolating? cramer is grinding through the facts next. welcome to chevy's year-end event.
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let's develop more stars in education. let's invest in our teachers... ...so they can inspire our students. let's solve this. tomorrow we are going to hear from one of my favorite companies and it is starbuck's. right now it is more than ten points off it's high for the year. i think it could mark the beginning of the stock's next big rally. you can follow along at actionalerts.com. a service that i do with the street. tomorrow the lots of people ask
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me how i would approach this meeting. which i retired from years ago. what would i want to hear from the company to see if i could buy more or sell. first of all, why does this meeting matter? it is every other year. they are a big deal for people. the company has had it's best day in 2010. starbuck's made it's promises. one of the reasons i'm so excited about the event is they deliver. they told you about it and then they delivered. for example, last year they told you about how they delivered in china. they said china would be it's
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second largest market. schultz talked about getting ip to the tea business. i mention all of this to understand that starbucks doesn't go in for idle chatter when it goes in for these meetings. it has a track record of following through on these plans. we want to know how the us business is doing. and you need to hear about international. europe, don't forget, green
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mountain, it has been huge. starbu starbuck's should tell us what it is going to do with it's cash. they have the cash to do it. i prefer them to grow with the money. this is a major bone of contention. i think it is good. the bears, they seem to think that the coffee could be played out. starbucks will tell us about the new juice store concept. maybe it will give us insight to what could end up being one of the three top markets for the company india. i can't wait to hear about the projections about india. and of course they need to address teavana.
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i thought this could be a terrific move. seem to be quite popular. the earnings as early at 2013. not just the cute tea bags. like i want to add some hot tea. i think it could turn out to be howard's third place. this time for tea drinkers, it has become a hot button with the short selling community. those guys affirm that the company's tea are contaminated with pesticides to the point where 100 of the samples violate u.s. laws. the company is sticking to its
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story that it sticks to the standards. by my colleague says that there are a huge number of hedge funds believe that the deal could fall through. they are thinking it is ortho. we will be listening when starbuck's talks about teavana tomorrow. let me give you the outline so you can understand why i'm so bullish about the stock. it is a high quality growth stock in a low-bogrowth world. they are putting up into stores all over the world. i expect to hear it is doing better than young. starbu starbuck's has high end stores
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may seem like there is a starbuck's in every corner in america. it is the highest quality of problems it needs to keep the lines shorter. i know they don't control the airports but please, add like five starbucks to every airport that i've been to. the company is improving the efficiency of the stores. they have the pods that you put in the keurig. and now they have the sumatra. they have the keurig the barismo. it could be a good year for the company. but 2013 should be a good year too. they should have to fight
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against the head wind against high coffee prices. now the price has come down big over 30%. so what was once a major head wind is now a tail wind. it has knocked 20 cents off of the shares. the decreased cost of coffee should add nine. here is a great thing for howard shulds for me. you want one, ask for the cramer while you are there. well be low the company's five year average. and it is a major discount to other high growth food chains. here is the bottom line. this company has a fabulous
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story to tell. it is a by into any fiscal weakness moving forward. let's go to beth in new york. beth. >> after $100 million in shared buy becomes, where could chipotle mexican grill be headed? >> i like the fact that everyone has given up on them and they are now ready to expand the shop house kitchen thing. i think the $235 to $250 i'm bullish on them. need a boost? is starbucks could be the right brew. they have a great price and because teavana is um-hum good. the lightening round is coming up next. >> keep up with cramer all day
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it is time for the lightening round. >> we are both kicking it back and forth whether to pull the ticker. you should have one too. knock out ko. allen in michigan. >> jim, booyah. i'm holding sprint and i've had a descent gain. i don't want you to take that gain. i want to buy one. do not sell sprint it is a good one. matt in michigan.
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i was wondering about toyota or ford. i pulled up with the subaru guy. i prefer ford to toyota. >> tracy in arkansas. >> yes, booyah. >> ctlp or cplp. >> okay yeah. it is an mlp. we are going with the tried and true. let's go to bo in missouri.
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i don't think it does anything either way. i want to buy berkshire hathaway. let's go to corey. >> how about the red skins? >> alfred morris has put me 7 and 6. the pringles is good. management has it together and that is for me. and that is the conclusion of the lightening rount. coming up.
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never underestimate the importance of the banks. eventually that situation will be resolved. once the cliff is behind us we could give out what would make this go higher. we are never going to get a sustained rally unless the banks are onboard. city national is a business bank
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also they cater to the wealthy. mostly in southern california and nevada new york city. this is a well run bank. let's check in with russell goldsmith and find out where this might be headed. i don't know anyone in this world who has the pulse of wealthy people the way you do. i need to know whether they are quaking about the increase of possible capitol gains. >> great to be with you. appreciate the support.
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i think we have been seeing for well over six months. it falls into two groups. people are sitting on their hands. deals are getting called off. i'm not going to borrow until i know where they are going to drive the dconnieconomy. there is always a slice of people who see opportunity with that. i would say a small minority have done. but most people are sitting on the sls waiting to know what is my health care cost and depression schedule. >> you have these big banks moving into wealth management.
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pushing products that maybe you are shorting on the right side. we try to traailor it. we have a full array to meet the needs of our clients. you have to have the capabilities to meet the needs of the clients. >> i want people to know that it is where you went for catered treatment.
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absolutely. people are starting to wake up at the "new york times." job creation, unemployment is coming down. the state a surplus for the state budget would come in handy and we have all of these world class industries that are new hoping the country. we got to get the strike solved. i think what they ought to do is go back to work while they mediate this thing. you are feeling better.
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i think the whole country is being tied up about this thing. beyond that, colorado housing prices are up. inventories are down. a number of good things are happening. >> we get a lot of pub polilicp. we are really pleased. but through this process, we stayed profitable. we bought rockdale investments here in new york and we broadened out and deepened our capabilities. and our bank with the number of
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bank purchases with the fdic. a lot of the analysts. they make this point clearly. keith says that pressure will be on your stock because of the net interest margin. as long as the fed keeps rates low. do you see a change there? >> bernanke has made rates stay low. i think things will pick up in the second half and i think it is going to be a while. we try to make more loans. we have had record levels of loan grown. and that is how you deal with it. you grow your business. if you want a service bank. without credit risk that is growing well. it is city national and this is russell goldsman.
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we are back after the break. >> great to see you again.
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irk yee knew these companies could not bring down taxes. it turns out that we were afraid that these bonds were bringing the whole world down and we should have been buying them. the europeans offered sensible plans and responsible governments stepped in. if you had been able to borrow a ton of money to buy them it would have worked. it may have been the single best investment of the 21st century.
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we are gripped by a similar hysteria about our own country. companies perceived to be the biggest loser. but it turned out to be an amazing trade. the stock traveled to $7.72.
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>> i can tell from the trading in the name it is not going to happen just yet. there are sellers everywhere. the only thing they have going for them is the debt. we know that when the cliff jump price jumps, well, i say the worst has been prepared for it. and key bank may be the worst of the bunch. it has been a terrible investment up until things turned. and then we will look back and say what were we thinking. why didn't we bid 7 and buy key
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